Trading based on “gut feeling” is like driving at night with your headlights off, you might move forward, but sooner or later you’ll crash. When you read the actual data, you see what’s really happening in the market. Sometimes what retail traders call “manipulation” or “fakeouts” is simply a misunderstanding of the bigger picture.

This often happens alongside improvements in monetary policy (how money flows) and fiscal policy (how the government spends).

When prices are at rock bottom, nobody cares about “financial revolutions” or tech innovations. But when prices start going “up only,” suddenly everyone yells, “This is the future of finance!” and new narratives pop up everywhere.

So, prices lead narratives.

Spotting Opportunities in the ‘Remaining Bull Market’

When we look at the 4-year cycle theory for Bitcoin, the current market seems to be entering the later stages of its cycle.

Historically, during the 2018–2021 bull run, Bitcoin rallied for about 151 weeks with gains of roughly 20x, followed by a correction lasting 53 weeks with a drawdown of about 77%.

This pattern has led many traders and analysts to debate whether Bitcoin will continue to respect the 4-year cycle, or whether we are shifting into something new (an extended cycle). The argument for an extended cycle often draws comparisons to gold, which entered a “secular bull market” after the launch of its ETF, fueling a long period of continuous price appreciation.

Interestingly, Bitcoin’s own spot ETF is one of the most successful ever launched, growing 20 times faster than gold ETFs in terms of adoption and inflows.

Regardless of whether the 4-year cycle holds or breaks, we can still observe Bitcoin’s ‘weekly cycles’ to get a better sense of what’s next.

Looking at the charts, Bitcoin appears to be setting up for a potential pullback or correction around mid to late September, which aligns with the upcoming FOMC meeting, a key macro event that often drives volatility across financial markets.

From a technical perspective, every time Bitcoin has touched the 50-week MA (white line), it has shown strong reactions, bouncing and continuing its upward trend. This suggests that, unless the MA 50 is broken decisively, there may still be one more leg up left in this bull market.

So, what does this mean for Bitcoin’s path forward?

• If the 4-year cycle holds, we may be approaching the final leg of the bull market before a larger correction sets in.
• But if the ETF-driven adoption pushes Bitcoin into an extended cycle, then we could be witnessing the start of a longer bull run cycle.

But in the short term, September looks critical. A correction within that timeframe could set a stronger base for continuation into Q4.

Look at When the Market Crashes

The last big bull run in 2021 ended when Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced the US would stop QE (Quantitative Easing), basically stopping the big bond-buying program that kept money cheap and flowing. At the same time, inflation hit 9.1% (the highest in 40 years). So the Fed hiked interest rates aggressively.

Fast-forward to August 2024: after Japan’s “carry trade” unwound, the market crashed. The spark? US unemployment rose by just 0.2%, getting close to the Fed’s “danger zone” of 4.5%. Investors panicked and started selling hard.

Ironically, that same month at the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium (its big annual meeting), Powell hinted that “the time has come for us to cut rates.” That speech marked the bottom of the market drop.

Has Bitcoin Already Topped? Macro Indicator Checklist

The Fed Fund Rate (FFR)

Bitcoin and altcoins tend to perform their best when interest rates are below the neutral rate.

That’s the point where monetary policy is considered “easy,” meaning there is plenty of liquidity in the system and investors are more willing to take risks. In this type of environment, money flows more freely into assets like stocks, crypto, and other speculative markets.

But market peaks usually don’t happen in the middle of that easy phase. Instead, they tend to form after the easy money ends, when the Federal Reserve lifts rates back up toward or even above the neutral rate, or when traders begin to expect that rate cuts are over and policy will soon become restrictive again. In other words, the turning point often comes when the market realizes the “party” of cheap money is nearing its end.

Right now, the neutral rate in the US is estimated at around 2.75%, while the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) stands at 4.5%. That means we are already in a restrictive zone.

Even if the Fed cuts rates later this year, the level would likely fall only to around 4.25%, which is still well above neutral. Policy would remain restrictive, and that limits how far risk assets like Bitcoin can run without deeper easing.

Still, being in restrictive territory doesn’t automatically mean Bitcoin is about to make a top.

In fact, the bigger narrative at this stage is not about another hike, but about when the Fed will start cutting and how deep those cuts will go. This shift in expectation is important because it shows that markets are leaning toward easing rather than tightening.

However, there are currently no signs of a fresh rate hike. In fact, markets are already pricing in potential rate cuts by September 2025. This means we haven’t yet entered the “re-tightening” phase that usually marks the final blow-off stage of a bull market.

In other words, Bitcoin may not have topped just yet, but for a lasting rally to continue, investors may need to see the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) drop much closer to, or even below, the neutral rate.

Liquidity Conditions

Beyond interest rates, M2 money supply and inflation patterns still don’t align with the conditions we usually see before a major market top.

Historically, Bitcoin peaks have coincided with moments when M2 money supply contracts sharply while inflation runs hot above 9–10%. That combination usually signals that liquidity is drying up at the same time prices are running away, triggering large-scale distribution.

Today, however, the picture looks very different. Inflation is only 2.7%, M2 is rising slowly instead of shrinking, and there’s no evidence of a sudden demand shock like the one following Covid or the 2022 energy crisis.

Bitcoin bull runs have historically flourished during periods of Quantitative Easing (QE), when liquidity floods the market. Right now, we’re still in Quantitative Tightening (QT) mode, the opposite environment. It is where central banks are draining liquidity. Euphoric tops tend to appear when liquidity peaks, not when it’s being squeezed out of the system.

But even if the Fed cuts rates to 4.25% in September 2025, interest rates would still be higher than the “neutral” level that makes markets feel safe to take risks. In practice, risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins usually only take off when the Fed’s rate drops to, or below, that neutral level.

Until that happens, rallies may stay shaky, and many expect it could take at least another 0.75% in cuts before conditions really become supportive. Since the neutral rate itself moves around with the bond market, the exact threshold could change, but for now, money is still tight and we don’t yet have the kind of easy liquidity that usually drives Bitcoin to a euphoric top.

USD and US Treasury

The US Dollar Index (DXY) doesn’t currently show a major red flag either.

While Bitcoin often moves inversely to the dollar, the context matters. A dollar rise caused by strong US economic growth isn’t always negative for BTC, especially when ETF inflows remain steady. The real danger is when DXY spikes in “panic mode,” like March 2020. Right now, DXY is moving sideways between 105–106, far from a breakout bull run.

The latest PPI report showed a small uptick, which could pressure CPI higher in the coming months and keep the Fed cautious.

This complicates the outlook for rate cuts, since inflation is not fully anchored.

The U.S. Treasury (UST) market tells a similar story. Normally, rising yields signal that investors are pulling money away from risk assets, but right now yields are rising mostly because of safe-haven demand amid global uncertainty, not because the US economy is overheating.

The yield curve is still inverted, which usually points to recession risks ahead.

If the Fed cuts rates in September, the curve could flatten a bit and give Bitcoin short-term support, but as long as interest rates stay above the neutral level, bonds and Bitcoin will still compete for investor capital.

Oil prices are another factor. In previous cycles, when oil spiked because of booming global demand, it often signaled that the economy was overheating and risk assets like Bitcoin were near a top.

Today’s oil rally looks different. It’s being driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Red Sea rather than strong economic growth. That makes it less of a warning signal for Bitcoin.

In sum, while macro conditions are still in a caution zone with rates above neutral and inflation not fully under control, the full checklist of historical Bitcoin top signals is missing. There’s no runaway inflation, QE hasn’t begun, the dollar isn’t in panic mode, and oil isn’t spiking on global demand.

Fiscal catalysts like the Genius Act, Clarity Act, global tokenization frameworks, and even Trump’s stance on stablecoins are already on the table, but their market impact is still unfolding.

All of this suggests the euphoric, blow-off top phase that usually defines Bitcoin’s true peak is still ahead, not here yet.

Where We Stand Now?

I argue today’s macro environment still has room for upside. Here’s a glance at why:

• Big Beautiful Bills: The US is adding up to $5 trillion in new debt, fuel for emerging speculative demand.
• Regulatory Progress: The Genius Act and Clarity Act are bringing much-needed clarity to stablecoins and crypto, reducing regulatory risk.
• Fed Leaning Dovish: Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks signaled rising concerns about labor-market softness, markets now see a September rate cut as highly likely (up to ~90% probability).

If that September report revises the end 2025, interest rate lower by even 0.25%, that could be the spark for a Q4 rally: OctoBull, NovemBull, DecemBull.

Why Policies Matter for the Bull Run Printer

We will discuss key driving factors for both Monetary and Fiscal Policies for the bull run.

Monetary Policy Drivers

• Labor Market & Employment: NFP, unemployment rate, and jobless claims shape how the Fed reads labor strength and potential policy shifts.
• Inflation metric & Growth: CPI, PPI, Core PCE, and GDP trends guide the balance between restrictive and accommodative policy.
• Interest Rates & Credit Conditions: Fed rates flow through mortgages, housing data, and credit markets, indirectly shaping liquidity and the wealth effect that feeds into demand for Bitcoin.

Fiscal Policy and Political Support Drivers

• Genius Act & Clarity Act: Regulatory clarity for stablecoins and crypto provides investor confidence.
• Scott Bessent’s Shadow QE: Bond buyback program and opening the door for issuers like Tether to buy T-bills, integrating stablecoins into public financing.
• Trump’s Stance on Stablecoins: With USD facing pressure from BRICS, stablecoins like USDT may actually reinforce dollar dominance in global trade.
• Global Tokenization Push: Frameworks across the US and other countries are creating fertile ground for globally tradable digital assets, opening new capital flows.

To keep it simple:

The Fed is still keeping money tight, and their next moves will depend on job numbers, inflation, and interest rates.
On the other hand, the government is spending big, trying new debt strategies, and even making rules that give crypto and stablecoins more room to grow.

In Part 2, we’ll dive deeper into why these policies matter for Bitcoin and how they could fuel the remaining bull run.